The results of our poll taken this past Friday on our social network pages have thrown up some perhaps predictable but stark statistics.
We will present the results in just one moment, don’t skip past just yet because we wanted to give a quick commentary on the Green Party. The reason will become clear as you read the results of the poll.
Prior to and during the election, everyone knows that the Greens had a successful ‘Green Surge’. It perhaps wasn’t as large as they had hoped but it was still significant, everything looked rather good for the future. Then though the election passed and history shows that Jeremy Corbyn became leader of the Labour Party. How that must have stuck in the throats of the Green Party politicians. Here was perhaps the most left-leaning Labour leader to grace that position in recent times, arguably ever.
There is little doubt that with the mandate Corbyn has been given coupled with the seeming post-election indifference of the Green Party, it will undoubtedly lose the Greens votes in 2020. But how many votes will it cost them and for how long?
Question 1. Did you vote Labour in either of the 2010/2015 General elections?
Perhaps our most important question when you consider that although almost 59% said they had voted for Labour in either 2010/2015 a surprising 41% said they had not voted Labour at all in either 2010/2015
Question 2. Will you vote Labour in 2020?
Bearing in mind the number that said they hadn’t voted Labour in either 2010/2015 in Question 1, a huge almost 78% said they will vote Labour in 2020 with almost 17% remaining undecided.
Question 3. Will you only vote Labour in 2020 if Jeremy Corbyn is in charge?
Almost 70% said they would only vote Labour if Jeremy Corbyn remains in charge with almost 11% undecided, although just under 20% would still vote Labour regardless.
Question 4. If Jeremy Corbyn was ousted before 2020 or resigned after a 2020 general election defeat would you remain a Labour voter?
Just over 44% would not remain Labour voters with almost 35% undecided. Just over 20% would still vote Labour. Although similar to question 3 and with some differences in voting patterns between the two, the figures for definitely voting Labour are quite similar percentages.
Question 5. If you answered no to question 4, who would you put your political allegiance to?
The figures below will not match the number of participants due to the variations in answering the question
Green Party 54%, a further 12% would consider the Greens
Non Voter 20%, a further 3% would consider being a non voter
Labour (some people still answered the question) 6%
Communist Party 2%
Plaid, CPB, Lib Dems, TUSC 1%, a further 3% would consider the SPGB and TUSC. 2% would consider the SNP and a further 1% would consider the Lib Dems.
The poll is not a scientific one and the poll was shared primarily, although not exclusively, in Labour supporting or left leaning groups on Facebook. With that said it doesn’t change a couple of stark facts. The Labour Party right now is reliant on the Corbyn juggernaut.
The support is large and if Labour does try to oust Jeremy Corbyn there will be only one way for the Labour Party to go. Down. The effect could see a long term impact on the Labour Party. 70% would only vote Labour if Jeremy Corbyn is in charge with 54% defecting to (0r back to) the Green Party and 20% promising to not vote again at all.
Remember, over 40% said they had not voted labour in either of the two previous elections and now they make up the vast almost 78% who intend to vote Labour in 2020. Ideally we now have to convince the undecided 17% to come on board.
The results were perhaps as expected but on paper it makes the message to the Labour MP’s clear. ‘Back Corbyn as leader or face an exodus’
Thank you to everyone who responded kindly and apologies to anyone who answered after the poll results were taken, you took the time to answer and that’s still appreciated.
RevSoc Comment: It is likely we will come into criticism from some quarters for polarising the Labour Party or “causing division” by doing the poll. Our opinion is that we do not believe it should cause division. Of course we also believe that people should get behind Jeremy Corbyn especially the MP’s but only in the same way they would get behind any other candidate. You may not agree with everything Corbyn says but show unity. If anyone is going to cause division it will be Labour MP’s who deliberate speak out against the leadership based on their own desires and wishes and that is detrimental to the Labour Party. We won’t stand by quietly whilst some Labour MP’s try to stab Corbyn in the back. Labour can easily win in 2020 but it needs not just voters to pull together but it needs MP’s to take note of what is happening on the ground.
By 2am there were around 8 further responses all following the same pattern with the exception of 2. Those two were preferences for UKIP. (The first and only ones of the day)
Poll results were taken on responses between 15.20 hours and 00.20 hours beginning on Friday 16th October. 145 responses were recorded. 145 respondents answered Q1 and Q2. 138 answered Q3. 135 answered Q4. 104 people gave definite answes to Q5 and a further 24 gave other possible preferences. All percentages given within the article are rounded up or down to the nearest 1%. (By comparrison official poll outlets such as MORI often release survey results with around 1,000 respondents although with slightly more scientific questions)