Implementing article 50 would trigger a 2 year leaving process from the European Union. It was thought that the Conservatives would trigger article 50 at the end of this year, now though the new time-table would push Brexit to the end of 2019, just months before the next general election.
It would be a wonderful strategic move for the Conservatives as they would almost certainly use the Brexit process as their main reason to be voted back into power for ‘stability’ reasons. It would make sense for them to beat on that electoral door. If they completed Brexit a year earlier and things went wrong then the public may not be so forgiving so what better way to catch the electorate on the hop than be caught between a ‘too early to tell’ moment and ‘too late to vote against us now’ perspective regarding the Brexit question. Theresa May can’t really wait any longer and thus push Brexit to 2020 as that will be too obvious a strategic move and in any case if they are seen to be stalling on Brexit they may not be trusted to deliver on their promise beyond 2020.
One more factor will be at play over the coming months and perhaps year or so. The Labour Party.
If Labour remains in disarray with the PLP continuing to commit political suicide by denouncing Corbyn or splitting the party then that may influence when a general election is held. We may even see an election as early as 2018 if the Unrest continues.
Theresa May will have to gamble between the best scenario or what’s less worse.. giving Brexit longer to settle into British society or take advantage of a Labour Party in turmoil.
Should Corbyn win and the PLP decide to get on board with the programme however and that element won’t even come into play. Labour will be seen as a stable (far more than before) entity and a threat to the Conservatives. At which point 2019 will be the likely moment for a new general election but don’t be fooled, this has nothing to do with ability to get the job done.
Jeremy Corbyn is not the answer. Jeremy Corbyn is not the solution. His win in 2020 will be just the start, a minor victory, a million miles from the resounding success everyone thinks it will be.
A victory will be the start of something potentially huge but if the Corbyn voters think that will be ‘it’ then they are sadly mistaken. Of course they will say that they are more than aware of that fact but how far down the track are they focusing?
One of the biggest obstacles to change is Parliament itself. Also known as ‘the system’.
When Corbyn decides to put a bill through parliament it will, at one point or another, be considered a big change. Perhaps a change to military engagement or a huge tax change to the wealthy or perhaps a change to domestic law. Maybe even a change to the democratic process itself. At that point there will be vested interests for those bills not to see the light of day. There is a long process for a bill to come to pass including a couple of times round parliament and then the House of Lords. Plenty of scope for change never to come to pass.
When that happens, and it likely will, what then? Where is the democratic process left?
Sure, as things stand now the likes of the House of Lords can and do block bills such as recently the reduction in Tax credits introduced by the Conservatives. The potential for Corbyn to have multiple bills blocked is stark. The people in charge will not want there to be such huge change.
Of course Corbyn doesn’t have to go all out guns blazing ripping up the rule book but that won’t wash with the people who vote him in. They will want change, they will want results and if it doesn’t come then it may be seen as a false dawn for the traditional left and an excuse for blue Labour to return the party to what will be a resurgent centre ground or even centre right.
Labour voters and especially Corbyn supporters will need to not just campaign for a Labour victory but be out in voice and show genuine passion at wanting the changes that Corbyn will try to implement and if parliament manages to block several bills in succession then Labour voters must go out in force, because this wouldn’t be just a blip, a one off, an exception to the rule, this will most likely be a concentrated effort to knock Corbyn from power. At any cost.
The point is that at some point it will all come to an end. Either Corbyn will be ousted, or he will step down after one or two unsuccessful terms or he will lead the charge to glory and win back-to -back terms but at some point, as sure as night follows day, there will be another Labour leader and they likely won’t be of the ilk of Corbyn, or indeed as is just as likely, the Conservatives will return to power and if nothing has been achieved by Corbyn to effect democratic change then all of this will have been for nothing.
Corbyn is the best chance the traditional left and indeed human kind within Britain has had at redressing certain balances within our democracy for many many years. It really is an all or nothing moment. Failure to deliver means returning to the politics of old where the people are ignored and politicians talk double speak at the drop of a hat. No one like Corbyn is going to be given the chance again after this, not unless he is such a resounding success that everyone in the country suddenly sits up and realises what they have been previously voting for all these years.
Whether you’re an anarchist, a communist a social democrat or just a plain old Labour voter or simply a nice human being 2020 will be the time to start the fight against the establishment, to take back parts of our true democracy lost to us decades and decades ago. Some may say it never existed but this is a chance to make a significant incremental change. If this can be done, it’s a step closer to our ideals than we have ever been before.
After that, we can all return to our own versions of our ideology in the knowledge that we did something practical and beneficial for the majority of the country and that’s a damn sight more than had been achieved by many, if any, before us.
The system is indeed rigged against us. The system is broken, but change can come. We just need to believe that it can happen and fight for that because doing nothing just because we don’t believe in that particular ideology is setting ourselves up to fail.
A start is better than no start at all.
The battle against the establishment hasn’t even begun.
The following is a metaphor. A message. A call out. This is not just a story.
If the next 4-and-a-bit years could be rolled into a single hour long episode then this is Labours Season Finale with the new season starting on the morning after the 2020 General Election.
The episode starts with a recap of went before. The dastardly Tory leader David Cameron, known as ‘Pig fucker’ to his enemies (and his closest friends) has just pushed Labours hero ‘Miliband’, into a deep pit and taken control of the Government but only after everyone thought that it was Labour, the good guys, who would take control.
Miliband has been knocked unconscious and the camera pans up from the bottom of the pit up towards the top, with the light beaming down through a haze shining onto the lifeless body of Miliband.
What now for our hero?
The season finale continues. What will Miliband do? What will Labour do? Will they survive or will the evil Tories take control forever?
Miliband’s body begins to vanish only to be replaced by the lifeless body of a bearded man known as ‘Corbyn’. The viewers have seen him before but he only ever played a bit-part in the series. He always had a vision how to beat the Tories but no one took him seriously. The viewers always thought he might be right but the script writers wouldn’t entertain him which always left the viewer feeling frustrated.
Here now was the moment where the viewer knew in their gut that this was the time for Corbyn. They were also confused though because he was lying there, lifeless. What was going to happen?
As the tories continued to rule the country with their evil plan of world domination and pig fucking, our unexpected hero begins to awaken. By now there is a trending hashtag across social media, #corbynite, these were Corbyn’s fans, the believers hoping that a hero was about to arise.
Half way through the episode and Corbyn indeed begins to awaken, covered in dirt, unkempt, confused and wearing a knitted jumper.. The viewer wonders, has his body been transported there, swapped with Miliband all the way from 1978?
There is no sign of what is to come though as the episode continues to focus on the Tory machine and the nazi like control that it now possesses over the media. The country is on bended knee to this tyrant intent on taking the country to war and raping the world for its resources.
With just 10 minutes to go Corbyn is up. He has dusted himself down, fashioned a reasonable beard with a sharp flint, rolled up his sleeves and loudly declared to all that can hear, This knitted jumper stays!!!
The music quickens, the base is deeper, the tone is frantic, the undertones are of belief. Belief that this is the moment.
But wait! Cameron is coming back. Why is Cameron coming back? To fill the hole? To finish him off? To remove what he thinks is the lifeless body of Miliband?
Now the viewer is on the edge of their seat, fingers devoid of any nails left to chew..
“Corbyn is climbing! He is climbing the pit! Go on Corbyn! Grip that branch! Get that foot into the crevis! Climb god damn you! Climb!!”
The viewers, now suddenly known as Corbynites, are rooting for Corbyn to get out alive, the vultures circling over the pit, Cameron on his way back, the media still sucking up to the dictator that is Cameron, it seems hopeless but it’s not over. Corbyn is climbing, every bead of sweat is felt by the viewer, every slip of the foot, every breath, every grimace.
Thwack! Corbyn’s hand launches out of the top of the hole and comes down onto the grassy verge, hands bleeding, sweating he clings to whatever he can, the viewer now screaming,
“Cameron is coming!! Get out! He will kill you! Come on, get out!!”
Corbyn is flailing, he is strong but everything is stacked against him, the system is now working against Labour and our heroes and now it seems Corbyn, our last hope will be wiped out even at the last hurdle.
Cameron arrives at the hole and he is shocked. He can’t believe what he is seeing but like the pig fucker he is he nonchalantly decides to give him a chance.
“You won’t get out alive Corbyn. You can’t win! You’re unelectable!” He shouts.
“Get out if you can, but if you do. I will destroy you”
Corbyn looks up and smiles, starts to pull himself out and slips just a little and grabs on to a root, teeth clenched, sweating. Corbyn is struggling but it just might be possible. The nation is with him but the system is against him. Will Corbyn get out!?
BLACK SCREEN – End of series.
And this is where we find ourselves right now, in real life. I have seen much to be hopeful about, there is a huge groundswell of support for Corbyn and his vision. Membership is up, social media is behaving like a Juggernaught heading straight for the Tory party conference, people are pledging to vote for Labour for the first time ever, some coming back to labour and others who didn’t vote at all because there was no one that represented them.
Yet somehow the Tories, the media and political commentators, with the exception of the deep rooted left wingers, are all circling like vultures at the tiniest of comments. The smallest of errors. In fact it would be fair to say the rhetoric is something the old USSR and ‘Socialist’ Germany 1943 would have been proud of simply because it doesn’t fit their idea of what works.
They seek to tell us, the electorate, that we have it all wrong and we are stupid for falling for it. They moan about democracy being killed because Corbyn dares to tell the cabinet to follow the line and unite the party, but the problem for these political commentators is that uniting the party is no good for their agenda. They want Corbyn to fail. They want disunity.
Something is happening though and it’s the same thing that happened in Greece, Spain, Ireland, Scotland and incredibly is happening with Bernie Sanders in Capitalist Central, USA.
People are fed up and want something different and every time the right wing press sneers, and everytime the Tories jeer, all they serve to do is to give Corbyn a push out of that pit. It adds another outstretched hand to Corbyn to pull him clear of the hole.
Every viewer of this Season Finale is rooting for the hero and it’s catching. This is how heroes are made, this is how social media lights up. This is what happens when an underdog is bitten too hard. It bites back.
Remember when you’re out there in the wild, on social media, challenge every lie. Challenge every slight, speak to people in conversation about Corbyn even if they have never heard of him. This literally is fighting the system. Fighting a system that is designed to keep people like Corbyn out.
If you don’t keep it up, Corbyn will slip back down into that hole and all this will be for nothing and Cameron will rule again. Don’t be afraid of what they say about you or him or the Labour Party. Don’t be put off. That’s what they are trying to do. Believe in the message, believe in a new politics.
What happens in the new season? You have a part to play in that.
Stop hypothesising. It’s right in front of you. Can you see it yet?
“you know what, this Austerity thing isn’t very popular is it? Let’s stop now and start giving something back to you”.
Probably not. Whilst you are busy hypothesising how we can get the Tories and Labour out of power and procrastinating that we will never see the Green Party gain any real genuine momentum and how we will never see democracy, we have already started a 5 year plan.
We started this the night before the elections. The 6th May. We knew the Greens would do well but wouldn’t make any huge inroads and when we saw what the SNP did in Scotland, as expected, we knew then that this plan could work.
There is one caveat to that though. You. Without you there is no plan. This is not hyperbole. It’s a fact. Whilst you’re over there planning to demonstrate on one of the demo days coming up in the summer or thinking about joining the Green Party, both of which by the way are wonderful acts that should be done with passion and commitment, the government is continuing to plan for 5 more years of cuts.
5 years of ‘we couldn’t give a rats arse about you‘ policies being enacted and everyone meanwhile is saying that Labour have not got a hope in hell in 2020 of taking back their crown to replace Tory austerity with, would you believe, Labour austerity. That’s right wing Labour for you.
In 2020 if we haven’t got our act together we will see another 5 years of Tory rule. Although demos and lobbying send messages to government they are unlikely to listen. I will eat my hat if Cameron turns round in July and says
“you know what, this Austerity thing isn’t very popular is it? Let’s stop now and start giving something back to you”.
It’s just not happening. So if we can’t get them out in 2020 and Labour are leaning ever more to the right and protesting won’t change much, if anything, what can we do?
Unless you have a million man army at your disposal then the only viable option is to get them out at the ballot box. Impossible? No. One heck of a challenge? Yes.
At the very least, if we can’t knock the Tories off their perch then becoming the true opposition to the Tories over Labour is a very real possibility.
Oh you were all thinking of voting Labour in 2020 just to get the Tories out? I am sure many people suggested that this time around as well, but it got us nowhere. What about not voting at all? Well, it’s preferable to voting Tory or Labout but then what?
In 2020 we will still have the Tories and Labour and no closer to the changes you want to see, because this is the crux, it doesn’t mater how anti government you may be, you will be stuck with on, likely throughout your lifetime. Wouldn’t it at least be better under a green government? Would you not have a better chance of creating the ideological society you yearn for under a Green government?
Forget voting for Labour. It’s time we had someone different in there. A real alternative. A game changer. Finally something to call our own political revolution. The Green Party, progressive ideas, short term plans for improvement for us all and long term plans for a huge, collossal shift in political thinking for the environment and the planet we inhabit. How glorious it would be to have another option in parliament.
Hang on though.. You’re over there still talking about it aren’t you? Shall we wait? When do you think you might do something about it? Next year? 2018? Maybe even leave it till the last six months.. Why not? Because if we do that then nothing changes. Period.
We are not delusional. We are not saying what we are doing will be the key aspect of a Green victory. We are not saying our work is better than anyone else’s. There are many factors to take into account why this will or won’t work. We know. We have looked at the angles available. Thing is, unless you jump on board with us then this will fail. This won’t go anywhere. Our goal is to change the landscape of thinking, to imprint on the minds of everyone you come into contact with in social media the existence and reality behind the Green Party. Perception is everything and by and large the Greens are still seen as a fringe party. The Green Party don’t have the funds to go viral. The Greens want to do things without mass handouts by sponsors and backers and rightly so. Let’s help them then. Become the unofficial Green Party PR machine. The advocates, the visionaries to a new political future.
Or of course you could just ignore all this and go back to your one-off demo. This though will last 5 years and it could be everywhere, burrowing in to the psyche of a nation, add with that our plan for Street events across the nation and you potentially have the recipe for the Greens to do an SNP.
Not exactly sure how we are going to do it? Well. We are not masters of this and we don’t have all the answers but we do know that we have a plan and it does indeed start with each and every one of you clicking a few buttons. For now, that’s all you have to do.
1 Million Greens is an effort to get 1 million people (like that which voted in 2015) to join together by joining this event in support of the Green Party and Go Green is a challenge to people that join to between now and 2020 actively convert someone to Green.
We also have a Street Team group for people who want to be active participants in the social media campaign and potentially help with arranging future street events. You can find it here at the link
Finally, you can find us on Google+, Twitter @202099G, YouTube, Spreaker, Flipboard and Instagram
You have nothing to lose but potentially Everything to gain. You can be the key to it being a success. We hope to see you there to make this possible.
Believe it can happen, because no one else will believe it for you.
Here we look at why we believe it is possible to get the Green Party who ultimately best represent the 99%, to at least a position of direct opposition to the Conservatives and usurp Labour.
Caveat: The examples and explanations here are in simple form and represent belief & hope as much as they do fact. However belief is what we must have if we have any chance of ridding ourselves of the most corrupt politicians in our midst.
We can immediately see where the majority of the vote came from, the Lib Dems, who were decimated. 50% of the Lib Dem vote went to the Green Party, more than any other party. This is followed by previous Green Voters and then on 18%, Labour voters.
Next we see the how the UK voted by way of a colour coded map.
We can see a clear pattern. Whilst the majority of England voted Conservative, the North was much more mixed than the South with the exception of London. Not wanting to put a too finer point on it but London as well as some parts of the North have some of highest poverty rates in England. It would make sense that the people suffering the most during this austerity would vote for what they saw as a more left leaning party than the Conservatives and things will likely only get worse over the next 5 years.
Keep this information about the Labour vote in mind for now.
Next we have two paragraphs regarding voter turnout.
This is where the idea for the 99G campaign originates. Scotland. The 45/YES social media campaigns worked a treat for the SNP and with a myriad of other factors thrown into the mix it is no wonder voter turnout was high, and look what happened there.
Manchester. Where Labour held. Manchester has some heavily poverty stricken areas and although Labour held, the turnout was very low, just 46%. Compare that to the 80% in the previous photo image and you will begin to build a picture of how Scotland went SNP wild.
The penultimate photo shows the UK vote share for 2015
Finally the voter turnout for the General Election 2015
66.1% of the available electorate turned out to vote on 7th May 2015.
So let’s do a quick analysis of how we can achieve the victory we want and so desperately need.
As it stands the Greens have 3.8% of the vote. If we can harness just 1% more of the vote from the Liberal Democrats (Who are in free fall) then that will take us to 4.8%. Higher than the SNP (We are aware about the injustices of the FPTP voting system). If we can then concentrate on Labour supporters, especially floating voters and voters who are fed up with the ever more right leaning Labour Party then feasibly we could look to wipe 10% off their vote and take that for ourselves. This would take us to 14.8% of the vote. Above UKIP.
But then take into consideration that only 66.1% of the population went and voted. If we can also reach that group of people then potentially out of the 31% remaining electorate we could skim another 10% from there and with Labours vote being down to around 20.4% we would see our vote share rise to around 24.8%. Above Labour.
With that level of support anything could be achieved. All the areas we can grab votes from makes perfect sense and is also proportionate and to a degree at least, realistic.
This is still a tall order and doesn’t take into account other factors and then you have the unknown factor. What will happen in 5 years time? We don’t pretend we will achieve it over night but we have every reason to believe that this could be a success.
Again, we know this is simplified, but it gives a brief overview of the challenges ahead.
2015 looks set to see some big demonstrations, not least the End Austerity demo on 20th June in London and the November 5th Anonymous protest.
Everyone is talking of uniting and organising from groups such as The People’s Assembly to Anonymous from advocates such as Owen Jones to hardened Occupy protesters and from every day activists across the country to every Facebook group with social change as their message.
Also though consider this. Come the 2020 general election we are likely to still see Labour or the Conservatives win yet another election and this merry-go-round of corruption will continue. Unless we can indeed unite.
If you want something different in 2020 then the fightback starts now, Consider joining the 99G social media and street event campaign, the slogan of which is ‘doing for the greens what the 45/YES campaign did for the SNP.
Let’s get the elite out, and if we can’t do that then let’s at least get a well represented voice for the left, the 99%, into parliament in significant numbers.
To join the 99G Campaign visit the campaign event page then share and invite everyone at 99G Event